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Sureity

Thu, 1 Jul 2010, 09:13 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. Definitions.

1.1. Let Eu denote a universal set of outcomes that we are interested seeing realized. And let E ⊂ Eu denote some particular subset of outcomes.

1.2. Let Pu denote a universal set of people. And let p ∈ Pu denote a particular person in that set of people. And let P ⊂ Pu denote some particular subset in the universal set of people.

1.3. And finally, let a conversation be defined as the unordered pair CPE ≡ {P,E} where P is a set of people engaged in a conversation about the outcomes E.

2. Managers, Workers and Bankers.

In any conversation about a particular set of outcomes, there are three roles involved with realization of the outcomes.

2.1. In a conversation, CPE, assurance is a commitment by some person p ∈ P that the outcome E will indeed by realized. The person p is therefore charged by P with the responsibility that E will be realized. We call this person a manager.

2.2. In a conversation, CPE, ensurance is a commitment by some person p ∈ P to arrange for E to be realized. The person p is therefore on the hook for figuring out how to realize E and executing those steps. We call this person a worker.

2.3. In a conversation, CPE, insurance is a contact sold by some person p ∈ P to pay monetary damages to P in the event that E is not realized. In the event that this person cannot pay the damages if the outcome is not realized, if this person is bailed out by the government, we call this person a banker, and we do whatever we can to enable him to continue engaging in more and ever-larger conversations of just this sort.

A Backyard Walk

Wed, 30 Jun 2010, 09:54 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

Let’s go for a walk in the back. I’ll show you around and tell you some stories.

[Click on the photos for bigger images. This is going to take a while. If you’re busy, feel free to leave at anytime.]

Let’s start on the patio.

Here’s our little pond. It’s in a 3′ cattle tank and has a small fountain that trickles and also keeps the mosquitos away, which means we don’t need fish, which means we don’t need to replace our fish if they die. (We’re not good at ponding, yet, and so why put fishes in peril?)

Overhead is our deteriorating pergola. I really need to deal with it someday. It’s starting to come undone.

In the distance, you can see some tall flowers in the middle of the yard. Let’s walk over there…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Ok, here we are, looking back towards the patio where we just were.

These are wild Sunflowers—not the stuff of formal gardeners, but we love them for their hardiness in the heat. I’ve seen something like them referred to as Cinnamon Sunflowers, but I’m not sure that’s the right name.

Anyway, we’ve been letting them go for the past several years, and with help from the Lesser Goldfinches, who seem to relish the seeds, they’ve been spreading to various parts of our lawn. The blossoms are very happy, and even though I haven’t seen the Goldfinches yet, I have seen Hummingbirds (yes on yellow blossoms) and bees. The bees are particularly gratifying.

To the left beyond the Sunflowers, you can see a bare spot in the yard. Let’s go see…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

About a year ago, I lost my self restraint and bought another Oak tree. This is Quercus turbinella which is resilient to oak wilt and doesn’t grow very tall.

Last year we let Queen Anne’s Lace spread throughout the yard, something I’ve vowed never to do again. You should have seen me on my hands and knees for weeks this spring pulling up the sprouts sown from the cloud of seeds from last year’s crop. I just left a ring of blooming plants around the Oak but then cut them out before they went to seed—whence the bare spot.

In the distance, you can see some more Sunflowers to the left near the Ash tree trunk. But look in the distance…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Peering over the Oak tree (notice that it has acorns, already!), you can see some Turk’s Cap on the right.

Several years ago, I planted a 4″ pot of Turk’s Cap and I’ve been spreading the fruit with some success. They like the shade, and although the rain this year seems to be encouraging some kind of bug to feast on them, they’re very hardy and seem to be winning. They are just now starting to bloom. The Hummingbirds will be happy about that.

Let’s walk over to the Sunflowers on the left…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

This is the far corner of our yard that until this year was kind of a wasteland. The fence was old and rickety and didn’t let a breeze thru, and we just didn’t find it pleasant back here.

But that all changed when we fixed the fence in January and opted for feedlot welded wire instead of traditional pickets. We now love this part of the yard and have been working on making it a nicer place to hang out.

In fact…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

We now find this spot so enjoyable with the new breeze that comes thru from the vacant lot behind us that we got us a little swinging bench.

In late June, it’s brutally hot here well before noon, because the sun is directly overhead. But in the early afternoon, the sun goes behind a Pine and Walnut tree, and we find ourselves sitting here and just gazing around (that is, when the mosquitos aren’t out in full force, which they really have been recently due to all the rain we’ve been having … not that I’m complaining).

And to the left you can see what we gaze at. Let’s go over and take a closer look at Trudy’s square foot gardens…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

There they are in their full glory: Trudy’s raised beds.

She’s got peas in the far bed, tomatoes in the tub in the foreground and four underperforming peppers that were easier to see in the last photo. (The tub has a long, illustrious history, but I won’t go into that, here.)

We’ve grilled a single pepper from our crop, and there’s another coming but no sign of ought else.

“Just keep them alive until the fall,” is what they told us at Natural Gardener last weekend. Hm… four plants for two peppers. We could have done better at the grocery story. But of course, that’s not really the point, is it? We’re getting better at this every year.

Come with me over here. I want to show you one more thing…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Just past the tomatoes is a funny fenced-in area that came with the house when Trudy bought it. There’s a huge Sunflower back there that towers over the gate and is shading some more peas growing on the other side of the chain link.

Let’s go thru the gate…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Look at this! From the house you can’t even see these Crepe Myrtles blooming. Years ago someone planted them pink/white/pink/white/pink. Every summer they bloom in profusion but only on this side, since the other side of the fence is generally shady but this side gets full sun in the morning.

Like all Crepe Myrtles, they love the heat, and as you can tell: it’s been hot.

Come with me a bit further. Watch your step. That lumber is pickets and old 2x4s left over from the fence we fixed. I’m getting rid of (most of) it slowly.

But let me show you my pride and joy…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Feast your eyes on those!

Two 3′ diameter compost piles.

In the fall, I collect leaves from the Red Oaks. In the spring I collect leaves from the Live Oaks. Sometimes I pilfer grass from neighbors who still bag their cuttings. And we compost all our vegetable scraps. (Even Bill across the street has started pitching in. Just today he brought over a dozen egg shells.)

I’m telling you, these piles are hot. Really, you’ll be shocked (no, scalded) if you reach down into them with your hands. But I’m telling you, there’s nothing better for the soul, than reaching into a hot compose pile with your hands.

And um… I can tell from the silence that we need to move on…


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

But that’s all there is to show.

We’ve reached the other corner of the backyard, and with that, there’s nothing else to do but show you this closer look at my beloved compose piles.


photo of the backyard, starting at the patio

Thanks for coming along.

Really (in two parts)

Tue, 29 Jun 2010, 04:36 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. Really?

“Are the rain barrels really full?” she asked from across the dining room table, gently questioning what I wrote.

I was momentarily silent. Only the fair and industrious Trudy would know that it would take more than yesterday’s rain to fill up the two barrels on the south side of the house.

“Well … no,” I said.

I was so busted. She nodded. Artistic license, we both agreed.

2. Really!

So today it happens again: the skies cloud over, daylight darkens and the rain comes down. It comes down in torrents, torrents I tell you.

I grab my raincoat from the closet and my wide brimmed hat. And I dash out the door.

There I am cleaning out the gutters and draining the rain barrels into extra containers and using some of the water to clean out the bottom of the trash can. There I am in the pouring rain with water streaming off the rim of my hat and my shoes squishing as I walk thru the inch-deep water running around the house. There I am getting soaked from head to toe, regardless of my apparel.

And there’s the dog barking from inside, barking at each thunder clap and barking at me each time I pass the front door.

No, no! Let me out. You shouldn’t be out there alone! Let me out so I can bark at the rain!

It rained and it rained most of the afternoon. Sometimes in torrents, sometimes in a steady stream. And it’s still raining now.

And now (yes, Trudy, now): all the rain barrels really are full!

Don’t Go Emptying Your Rain Barrels…

Mon, 28 Jun 2010, 08:45 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. The Approaching Storm

“Watch the radar,” she said. “Don’t go emptying your rain barrels until you know it’s going to rain.”

The fair and industrious Trudy knows her husband well.

So I sat at the keyboard periodically glancing out the window, eyeing the approach of black clouds from the west. And I watched the radar: it was coming:yellows and oranges and … was that a little red? The sky turned black. A wind kicked up and tossed the upper reaches of the Ash tree.

I kept watching the radar. Until I could watch no more. It was certain to rain. The radar showed a wall of color advancing toward us. The sky was darker by the minute, and thunder was rolling just beyond the hills. So I went and drained some of our best rain barrel into an empty garbage can.

And you know what happened then, don’t you?

The wind died down. The clouds broke. It was as light as day again. And there was no rain.

I went back inside and sat down at the keyboard, shaking my head.

2. Walking the Dog

There were a few small corrections to make to my program, so I made them and checked the code back in. The sky was majorly light, now, and in place to the southwest there were patches of blue.

I could not believe my luck and went outside to silently shake my fist at that storm hills. And as I stood outside in the driveway reflecting on the dry grass and how the water barrels would be empty soon, the dog started barking uncontrollably from inside the house.

Take me out! Take me out! It’s getting late, and I haven’t been for my walk!

I smiled and went inside and turned to grab the leash just inside the door. Guinness jumped and squirmed and ran in circles, and I waited for him to gather his wits. And then we went out the door.

We went down the block and turned left, for to the right are the soccer fields, and the dark skies and flashing lightning had evidently passed that way, and I decided we didn’t need to be the only thing standing out there. So we went left and then left again for a quick walk around the block—something’s better than nothing

Then I felt a drop on my head. It made me chuckle. A little finger in my eye just to rub it in—a drop of rain where I had been expecting a storm. And then another drop, and then another and another, until the skies opened up (from what rain clouds, I do not know), and the two of us were soaking wet.

A family was sitting under the eaves of their house across the street watching us. They smiled and waved. I told them we could thank the dog’s walk for the rain, and they laughed. And I smiled.

And we got very, very wet. And my rain barrels got full.

Birds

Tue, 22 Jun 2010, 11:23 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. Hummingbirds

The Turks Cap has only barely begun to bloom in the backyard, the red flowers peeking out from the one plant by the Pine tree. I didn’t figure that we’d see Hummingbirds much until we had more of those red blossoms, but yesterday there was one flitting between the wild Sunflowers.

I didn’t know Hummingbirds do yellow.

2. Owls

In the evening after sunset, just before evening sets in, when the dusky light is still enough that you can make out the branches in the trees… For the last three nights, right at that time, I’ve been sitting outside waiting for the Owls to come.

There’s a family that has roosted a couple houses down across the street, the male in one Owl house, the female and the babies in another. This year there seem to be four babies, and they’ve fledged and come into our trees for their evening breakfast.

I’ve been sitting in the driveway the last three nights waiting for them to show up. The babies squeak/squawk from the branches with greater intensity when one of the parents swoops into the canopy of the Oak or Ash with some poor critter hanging from its beak.

I whistle at them, which makes them turn and look at me with great concentration, or which makes them swoop in for a closer look, or which makes them do the Owl head-bobble thing trying to figure out why that thing down there on the driveway is singing an Owl A-song.

3. Why?

So why the birds?

I’d like to say that I don’t know, that it’s just like when I ramble on about the flowers or blue sky or the sunshine or… I’d like to say that it’s something insignificant. But that’s not true.

There’s more to it, because the news today is … well … oh boy. And I can’t talk about it without getting louder and louder.  I hear it in myself. I know that the fair and industrious Trudy hears it, and although she tolerates it, it can’t be pleasant. And so, well, I just need to keep my mouth shut. It won’t change anything to talk about it, anyway.

So I’ll sit here and talk about birds as the 20th Century fades away and the grim reality of the 21st begins to sink in deep.

Birds. I’ll talk about birds.

A Sad Ending

Fri, 18 Jun 2010, 04:23 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

He works in one place. I work in another far away from him. We’ve worked together on a project for several years.

We were talking on the phone about an idea he had, something to fill in now that our project’s being cancelled. But it was an idea that didn’t work out, and so our conversation was really “good bye”, since we won’t be working together anymore.

“You know this really makes me sad,” I told him.

“Well, it’s a small community,” he said. “We’ll run into each other again.”

He knows. He’s been doing this for a very long time.

“You know I started in this business during the downturn of Apollo. I’ve seen this happen before. But this was different. It just wasn’t handled right.”

Too many people not only feel sad about this, about the loss of the distributed, badgeless team that the project built, about the loss of the hardware, software and processes they’d begun to build. They feel betrayed, and they feel as if they were deceived.

You see, this was going to be the real deal. A project done right, built well, built to last. But it was never properly funded and so expectations were always well beyond what had been paid for. And the managers were constantly fighting a losing battle against too little money and too much mass. In the end, those who failed to provide the funds ended up taking pot shots at the technical people in the trenches, slandering their work, trying to pin the funding shortfall on them.

“It was vindictive,” he said to me.

A very sad ending.

Things Fall Apart

Wed, 16 Jun 2010, 04:13 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. Coder.

“He writes code,” he told me. A badge of honor in times like these.

I was quiet for a moment, remembering old times.

I remember when I wrote code. Those were good years. Golden years sitting at a desk with few distractions, few meetings, few teleconferences—with something concrete and meaningful to focus on. I would set two alarms to break me out of my concentration at the end of the day on Fridays when I had to meet the boy at the airport.

I haven’t done that in a very long time.

2. Longevity.

“It’s time to move on,” he said as we were talking about ways to wrap up the changes he’s been making to a document so we can put it on a shelf.

“By the way,” I said. “I got some good news today: they say they’re pretty sure about funding thru July. … Good news.”

“Well, I’m hoping for the best but doubtful about longevity,” he said.

3. Running out of string.

We stumbled on each other in the hall a few weeks ago. I used to work for him.

“How are you in these stressful times?” he asked.

“Ok, all things considered. Sometimes it seems like I’m hanging from a string.”

He laughed his chortling laugh.

“Well,” he said. “You better start spinning. It’s about to run out.”

They Took Off Their Engineering Hats

Tue, 15 Jun 2010, 06:42 PM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

A hard problem to solve.

Why don’t you tell me how your happy-talk can stop the spewing oil in the Gulf? Tell me how being a team player would help or how spin and PR will. Show me how the invisible hand will fix the glop and the death. Tell me how innovation that flows from unfettered profit can shut off the spigot. And tell me how thugs keeping the press away contributes.

No…

Happy-talk doesn’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve. Being a team player doesn’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve. Spin and PR and lies don’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve. Blind faith in the invisible hand doesn’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve. Innovation that derives from greed doesn’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve. And finally covering up the problem by intimidating the press doesn’t help when you’ve got a hard problem to solve.

When you have a hard problem to solve, you need more than good ol’ boys with firm handshakes and cowboy attitudes.

Engineering hats.

And boy do the BP guys have a hard problem to solve. They knew it before it blew up. But they took off their engineering hats and took shortcuts because time was money and money is king and … you know … bad things don’t happen in the land of happy-talk and free markets and captured federal regulators, so who needs good contingency plans.

They took off their engineering hats and put on their management hats, and … kaboom … now their bad problem has become a calamity.

It’s the same calamity, is just so happens, that Transocean (nee Sonat) had with Ixtoc 31 years ago when they poked into the earth and blew up a well and weren’t able to top hat it or top kill it or junk shot it or do anything to stop the spew for 290 days. For years, a trip to the beach meant taking WD40 with you to get the goo off your feet, and heaven help you if it got in your hair.

BP has the same problem: same problem, same company owning the rig, same inadequate backup plans. The same problem … um … except that this one is a mile under the sea. And their engineering hats lay crumpled on the floor!

I know, I know. I’m a cynic and it gets tiresome. But you know when you’re playing with fire, you really ought to consider that the sky really could fall. BP really ought to have had realistic backup plans that were based on more than cut & paste. They didn’t.  (Really: Walruses in the Gulf!?)

Not Knowing Where He’s Coming From

Tue, 15 Jun 2010, 11:35 AM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

A long time ago, I am in the lobby of the building I worked in and my landlord comes up to me. He is a colleague of sorts and works down the hall, but I rent his house. He walks up to me and starts talking about a letter he got from the homeowners’ association, about how they are not happy with the yard, how the grass is too long.

He looks at me and says, “We need to fix this.”

I’m embarrassed, and I start to get light headed. The points of light begin circling in my eyes and my peripheral vision starts to darken and my body flushes and sweat starts streaming down my face and my ribs inside my shirt. I lean over to put my head down, and I suggest that we should sit on that couch over there. The danger passes. We agree to a solution. And then I go get a cold can of pop.

So I know where the Petraeus is coming from. Except of course, I don’t—not even close.

Still, hearing about him under the lights, in front of the grilling and fawning senators, feeling a little thirsty and then everything starting to blur… It makes me remember how ashamed I was that the grass got so long that it took a threatening letter.  And I kind of get dizzy thinking about it and thinking about the general. And I feel for the man, even if I don’t know where he’s coming from.

Hawks and Owls and Cranes

Tue, 15 Jun 2010, 11:27 AM (-06:00) Creative Commons License

1. Hawk

It was early morning. The sun was still low enough that the heat of the day had not yet risen, and there were clouds running low in the sky and even a hint of rain.

We stood at the top of a hill at the edge of a Juniper thicket. Behind us, a few of spring’s flowers were still blooming in the grass where the trees dwindled.

The Golden Cheek Warblers like the thicket, Brandon was telling us. And the Black Capped Vireos like the open, grassy places, although he wasn’t sure if they’d seen any up here.

And as he was talking about Warblers and Vireos and controlled burns, in the distance we heard a Red Tailed Hawk — a long mournful cry that lingered longer than any I’ve heard before. As it was crying, it flew towards us, wings outstretched, tail lit by the morning light. And then it was over us, screeching/crying as if to welcome us. Or maybe to complain. Or maybe, of course, for some reason that had nothing to do with us.

And then it was gone.

2. Owls

It was dusk of the same day. The sky still glowed with the remnant light of day, but the shadows were deep under the Oak and Ash.  It had been a hot day, and my clothes were wet from sweat. I came around the corner of the house to sit down on the bench and catch my breath and enjoy the little bit of evening breeze.

There was something in the tree—a scratching/scraping sound vaguely reminiscent of cicadas. Or was it a squirrel complaining? I looked up to see and noticed a small silhouette in the branches. It wasn’t a squirrel: I saw no sign of a tail. It wasn’t a broken branch.

Then something flew into the canopy from behind me with great grey wings outstretched. It landed next to whatever that thing was, and the two of them moved closer together. And the scratching/scraping sound continued.

Owls. They were owls. And now a third one joined them from the other side of the street, gliding into the upper reaches of the tree on great grey wings.

I whistled my Screech Owl call, and one of them turned to look at me, rotating its head each time I whistled. Behind me somewhere in the neighbor’s yard, I heard the long low rolling A-song of another owl. I whistled again.

And then they all spread their wings flew off.

3. Cranes

It was night of the same long day. Clouds covered the sky. The dog was off leach, because the soccer teams had left for the night. The field lights were still on.

I looked up at something that was moving overhead and saw a long ‘V’ of bright white birds lit up from below.

I think they were Cranes, although it’s late in the year for them. I understand they fly at night while we’re obliviously asleep. This group flew over the soccer field with it’s glaring lights filling the night, and my oblivious was erased. I stood there, head turned to the sky, and watched. I was facing east and stood there as they flew overhead and southward to the right until they disappeared again into the gloom of night.

They were headed to the coast.

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